Games & scoring / Odds
Gacha Probability Calculator: Chance in N Pulls, with Pity
Enter a drop rate and the pulls you can make to see the chance of getting at least one, how many pulls give a 50%, 90%, or 99% chance, the average pulls needed, and how a hard pity guarantee changes them.
Gacha Probability Calculator: Chance in N Pulls, with Pity: With independent pulls, the chance of at least one hit in n pulls is 1 − (1 − rate)^n. At 0.6%, 90 pulls give about 42%, a 50% chance needs 116 pulls, and the average is 167 pulls; with a hard pity at 90, the average falls to about 70 and the chance in 90 pulls is 100%. Runs 100% locally in your browser with zero server file uploads.
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| Pulls | Chance of at least one |
|---|---|
| 10 | 5.8% |
| 50 | 26% |
| 100 | 45.2% |
| 200 | 70% |
| 300 | 83.6% |
Each pull is treated as independent: the chance of at least one hit in n pulls is 1 − (1 − rate)^n, so a 0.6% rate gives about 42% in 90 pulls, not 54%. A hard pity guarantees a hit by that pull. Many games also raise the rate shortly before the pity (soft pity) or carry pity over between banners, which this calculator does not model; check the published rates for the game you play.
Planning
Divide the pulls you can afford by the average pulls for one hit to see how many copies you can expect, and use the 90% figure if you must not miss.
Spending
Set a budget before pulling: random rewards are designed to encourage one more try. To track what you spend each month, use the subscription cost calculator.
How to use it
- Enter the drop rate from the game's published rates.
- Enter how many pulls you can afford, and the hard pity if there is one.
- Read your chances and the pulls needed.
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Frequently asked questions
Why isn't it 0.6% × 90 = 54%?
Because each pull can miss independently: chances do not add up, and even after 1 ÷ rate pulls, about 37% of players have still not hit.
What is pity?
A guarantee that the item drops by a set number of pulls; a soft pity raises the rate in the pulls before it, which this calculator does not model.
Are the results exact for my game?
Only if pulls are independent at the stated rate; check the game's published rates and pity rules.
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